The two figures seem to contradict each other. Between January and June 2025 Paraguay exported 202.300 tonnes of beef, 15,9% more than in the same period of 2024, and earned USD 1.080,8 million, 34,7% more. At the same time, official data from MAG and SENACSA show that the national cattle herd shrank 9% between 2020 and 2025 and that the number of producers fell 16%.
There is no contradiction. There is concentration and there is price.
View the data in a table
| Indicator | Change | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export revenue | +34,7% | Jan-Jun 2025 vs 2024 | BCP |
| Volume exported | +15,9% | Jan-Jun 2025 vs 2024 | SENACSA / BCP |
| National cattle herd | -9,0% | 2020-2025 | MAG / SENACSA |
| Cattle producers | -16,0% | 2020-2025 | MAG / SENACSA |
The first two indicators compare the first half of 2025 against that of 2024; the last two measure the 2020-2025 series. They are different periods, so they should not be read as a single curve: they are shown together because they describe the same imbalance.
More revenue than volume: the price did the work
Volume grew 15,9% and revenue 34,7%. That difference is price: the exported tonne came in at around USD 5.292. When revenue grows more than twice as fast as the kilos, the business is not selling more beef, it is selling the same beef for more.
That happens for two combined reasons. External demand held firm —Chile accounted for around 28,2% of shipments, followed by Taiwan, the United States, Israel, Russia and Brazil— and regional supply did not grow at the same pace. Fewer animals available with active buyers pushes the price of cattle upward.
For the producer, a smaller national herd is not only bad news: it is also what sustains the price of their own cattle.
Why the herd shrank
The 16% drop in the number of producers is the most telling figure. The cattle did not vanish overnight: the ranches that left the business were those that could not absorb the drought, the cost of restocking and the lack of scale. Some of that cattle was slaughtered instead of breeding, and that is paid for later, with fewer calves.
It is a familiar cycle across the region: when the price of finished stock rises and the breeding cow is liquidated, the herd loses its capacity to restock and future supply tightens even further.
What this means for the producer
If there are fewer animals and a better price per kilo, the margin is no longer earned by buying more cattle: it is earned by producing more kilos with what you already have. Three concrete fronts:
- Calving. Every point of pregnancy rate is cattle of your own that you don't have to buy at today's price.
- Average daily gain. Shortening the fattening cycle frees up grass for the next batch. The pasture is the asset, not the paddock.
- Mortality and animal health. With cattle expensive, every animal lost costs twice what it did three years ago.
What it means for the investor
A market with a firm price and tight supply is attractive, but the outcome of a cycle still depends on two prices that no one controls: the buying and the selling price of the cattle. That is why, when assessing a cattle project, the projection of profitability matters less than these three questions:
- Which specific animals back my capital and how are they identified?
- How often do I receive real weighings and not estimates?
- What happens if the cycle closes below expectations, and who absorbs that difference?
A project that answers those three with documents is more trustworthy than one that answers with a percentage.
What we are watching ahead
As long as the national herd stays tight, the price of cattle should hold up. The opportunity is not in growing in area but in raising productivity per hectare: pasture rotation, animal health up to date and individual record-keeping to be able to prove what you produce. The markets that today pay best for Paraguayan beef are increasingly asking for exactly that.
Sources: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG), National Animal Quality and Health Service (SENACSA) and the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP). Data from the first half of 2025 and the 2020–2025 series.